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Public Diplomacy by the Numbers, 2010

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(USCIS.gov)

Reports from multi-national opinion surveys on U.S. standing and related issues

Muslim Publics Divided on Hamas and Hezbollah. Released 2 December 2010

Extremist groups Hamas and Hezbollah continue to receive mixed ratings from Muslim publics. However, opinions of al Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden, are consistently negative; only in Nigeria do Muslims offer views that are, on balance, positive toward al Qaeda and bin Laden.

Hezbollah receives its most positive ratings in Jordan, where 55{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} of Muslims have a favorable view; a slim majority (52{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) of Lebanese Muslims also support the group, which operates politically and militarily in their country.

But Muslim views of Hezbollah reflect a deep sectarian divide in Lebanon, where the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is threatening violence if a United Nations tribunal indicts Hezbollah members for the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. More than nine-in-ten (94{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) Lebanese Shia support the organization, while an overwhelming majority (84{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) of Sunnis in that country express unfavorable views.

In neighboring Egypt and Turkey, attitudes toward Hezbollah are generally negative. Just 30{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} of Muslims in Egypt, and even fewer (5{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) in Turkey, offer favorable views of the Lebanon-based organization. Outside of Turkey and the Middle East, many Muslims cannot rate Hezbollah, but views are on balance positive among those who do offer an opinion of the group in Nigeria and Indonesia.

The survey, conducted April 12 to May 7 by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, finds that the Palestinian organization Hamas, which, like Hezbollah, has been classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and other Western governments, also receives mixed ratings across the Muslim publics surveyed. Jordanian Muslims express the most support — 60{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} have a favorable view of Hamas — while Muslims in Turkey offer the least positive ratings (9{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} favorable and 67{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} unfavorable). Opinions of Hamas are nearly evenly split in Egypt and Lebanon.

In most countries, views of Hamas and Hezbollah have changed little, if at all, since 2009. In Indonesia, however, more Muslims express favorable views of both groups now than did so last year; 39{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} now have positive views of Hamas, compared with 32{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} last year, and 43{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} have favorable opinions of Hezbollah, compared with 29{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in 2009. And among Nigerian Muslims, favorable views of both Hamas and Hezbollah are now less common than they were in 2009 (49{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} vs. 58{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} and 45{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} vs. 59{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}, respectively)….

2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll. Released 5 August 2010

Among the key poll findings are:

  • A substantial change in the assessment of President Obama, both as president of the United States and of Obama personally.
  • Remarkably stable views on the Arab-Israeli conflict and the prospects of its resolution.
  • A majority of the Arab public now see a nuclear-armed Iran as being better for the Middle East.

Among the most striking findings on the question of attitudes toward President Obama: Early in the Obama administration, in April and May 2009, 51{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} of the respondents in the six countries expressed optimism about American policy in the Middle East. In the 2010 poll, only 16{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} were hopeful, while a majority – 63{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} – was discouraged.

On Iran’s potential nuclear weapons status, results show another dramatic shift in public opinion. While the results vary from country to country, the weighted average across the six countries is telling: in 2009, only 29{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} of those polled said that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons would be “positive” for the Middle East; in 2010, 57{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} of those polled indicate that such an outcome would be “positive” for the Middle East.

The poll was directed by Shibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland and nonresident senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, which is produced each year in conjunction with Zogby International. This year’s poll surveyed 3,976 people in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates, during the period of 29 June – 20 July 2010.

Obama More Popular Abroad than at Home, Global Image of U.S. Continues to Benefit. Released 17 June 2010

America’s image is on balance positive in most of the nations surveyed, and overall there has been little change since last year. Looking at the 20 countries surveyed for which 2009 trends are available, positive views of the United States have become more common in six nations, less common in six, and have remained about the same in eight. But there have been notable shifts in some countries, including significant improvements in Russia and China.

Driven by President Obama’s popularity in the region, favorable ratings for the U.S. in Western Europe soared between 2008 and 2009, and in this year’s poll attitudes remain overwhelmingly positive in Britain, France, Germany and Spain.

Opinions about the U.S. have turned sharply negative, however, in Mexico, where resentment of Arizona’s new immigration law is fueling a backlash against the U.S., the American people, and even against President Obama, who has publicly criticized the measure.

And, despite the continued favorable image of the U.S. in most parts of the world, in nine of the fifteen countries where comparable data is available, America’s favorability still lags behind that found in 1999/2000 at the end of President Bill Clinton’s time in office. The U.S. is only more popular in five countries than in the Clinton era – France, Spain, Russia, South Korea and Nigeria.

The U.S. also continues to face image challenges in predominantly Muslim nations. Roughly one year since Obama’s Cairo address, America’s image shows few signs of improving in the Muslim world, where opposition to key elements of U.S. foreign policy remains pervasive and many continue to perceive the U.S. as a potential military threat to their countries.

Concerns about American foreign policy are not limited to Muslim publics, however. Most notably, in regions across the globe, there is a common perception that the U.S. acts unilaterally in world affairs. The war in Afghanistan also remains widely unpopular, although publics among some of America’s European allies are closely divided on this issue. Support for the war has declined over the last year in the U.S. and Americans are also now about evenly split between those who want to keep troops in Afghanistan and those who favor withdrawal.

One issue on which Americans and Western Europeans differ sharply is how they perceive religiosity in the U.S. By a hefty margin, the French, British and Germans say the U.S. is too religious a country, while Americans overwhelmingly think their country is not religious enough. On this issue, Americans tend to agree with the rest of the world – in 17 of 21 countries people tend to say the U.S. is not sufficiently religious.

U.S. Image Largely Positive

Majorities or pluralities in 17 of 21 countries have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of the U.S. The biggest increase in favorable ratings for the U.S. has been among Russians. In America’s former Cold War nemesis, 57{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} now have a positive view, up 13 percentage points from last year. There was also a significant increase in the other former Eastern bloc nation included in the survey, Poland, where 74{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} express a favorable opinion, up from 67{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in 2009.

Among America’s key Western European allies, ratings remain generally positive and largely steady. After a steep decline in approval during the years of the Bush presidency, large majorities in all four Western European nations surveyed now express a positive attitude toward the U.S. Fully 73{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in France give the U.S. positive marks, essentially unchanged from last year. U.S. favorability dropped just slightly in Britain, from 69{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} to 65{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}. Again this year, just over six-in-ten in Germany (63{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) and Spain (61{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) offered a favorable assessment.

Favorable ratings for the U.S. have suffered a double-digit decline in Egypt. In 2009, 27{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} of Egyptians had a favorable opinion, but this year only 17{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} hold this view, tying Egypt with Turkey (17{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) and Pakistan (17{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) for the lowest U.S. favorability rating in the survey. Views of the U.S. are only slightly more positive in Jordan, where 21{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} give a favorable assessment, down somewhat from 25{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} last year. The two predominantly Muslim countries that accord the U.S. its most positive ratings are Lebanon (55{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) and, especially, Indonesia (59{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), where President Obama’s personal connection to the country buoys America’s overall image.

Ratings for the U.S. have improved markedly in China – 58{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} have a positive view this year, up from 47{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} last year. America’s image has been steadily improving in China since 2007, when only 34{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} expressed a favorable opinion.

Favorable ratings have become less common over the last year in India, dropping 10 percentage points. Nonetheless, 66{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} of Indians continue to hold a positive opinion of the U.S.

An identical percentage of Japanese (66{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) voice a positive view. And despite the July 2009 election of a new ruling party that, according to many observers, has voiced criticisms of American policies, U.S. favorability has actually risen seven percentage points since the spring 2009 poll. Elsewhere in Asia, South Koreans continue to give the U.S. overwhelmingly positive marks (79{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}).

The only publics giving the U.S. higher marks than South Koreans are the two nations surveyed in sub-Saharan Africa. Roughly eight-in-ten (81{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) have a positive view in the continent’s most populous country, Nigeria. And with near unanimity, Kenyans (94{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) voice a positive opinion of the U.S. Additionally, President Obama is extremely popular in Kenya, and the 2009 Pew Global Attitudes survey found that the vast majority of Kenyans were aware of his personal connection to their nation (his father was from Kenya). However, the U.S. was also relatively popular in Kenya, and in much of Africa, during George W. Bush’s presidency….

Results for the survey are based on telephone and face-to-face interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. All surveys are based on national samples except in China, India, and Pakistan where the samples were disproportionately urban.

Global Views of United States Improve While Other Countries Decline
BBC/GlobeScan/PIPA. Released 18 April 2010

Global views of the United States have improved markedly over the last year while views of many countries have become more negative, according to the latest BBC World Service poll across 28 countries. For the first time since the BBC started tracking in 2005, views of the United States’ influence in the world are now more positive than negative on average.

The survey, conducted by GlobeScan/PIPA among more than 29,000 adults, asked respondents to say whether they considered the influence of different countries in the world to be mostly positive or mostly negative. It found that the United States is viewed positively on balance in 20 of 28 countries, with an average of 46 per cent now saying it has a mostly positive influence in the world, while 34 per cent say it has a negative influence.

Compared to a year earlier, negative ratings of the United States have dropped a striking nine points on average across the countries surveyed both years, while positive ratings are up a more modest four points. Ratings of the influence of many other countries, meanwhile, have declined over the past year. On average, positive ratings of the United Kingdom and Japan are down three points, Canada down six points, and the European Union down four points. Ratings of the United Kingdom’s influence in the world declined significantly in 11 countries and rose in only three….

Germany is the most favourably viewed nation (an average of 59{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} positive), followed by Japan (53{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), the United Kingdom (52{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), Canada (51{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), and France (49{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}). The European Union is viewed positively by 53 per cent. In contrast, Iran is the least favourably viewed nation (15{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), followed by Pakistan (16{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), North Korea (17{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), Israel (19{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), and Russia (30{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}).

While it is not among the most favourably viewed nations, the improvement in the ratings of the United States means it has now overtaken China in terms of positive perceptions. Fifteen countries view China favourably on balance, with an average of 41 per cent feeling it has a mostly positive influence in the world and 38 per cent feeling its influence is mostly negative.

Iran attracts mostly negative views in all countries polled except Mexico and Pakistan–on average, 56 per cent rate it negatively. Views of Iran in China and Russia have deteriorated–positive views have dropped 11 points among the Chinese people (30{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) while negative views of Iran have jumped up 13 points among Russians (to 45{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}).

The BBC World Service Poll has been tracking opinions about country influence in the world since 2005. The latest results are based on 29,977 in-home or telephone interviews conducted across a total of 28 countries by the international polling firm GlobeScan, together with the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland. GlobeScan coordinated fieldwork between 30 November 2009 and 16 February 2010….

Global Perceptions of U.S. Leadership Improve in 2009
Gallup, Meridian International Center. Released 9 February 2010

Perceptions of U.S. leadership worldwide improved significantly from 2008 to 2009. The U.S.-Global Leadership Project, a partnership between the Meridian International Center and Gallup, finds that a median of 51{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} of the world approves of the job performance of the current leadership of the U.S., up from a median of 34{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in 2008.

Gallup has asked residents worldwide to rate the leadership of the U.S. since 2005, which enables a comparison of how perceptions of U.S. leadership have changed from the Bush administration to the Obama administration. The global median approval of U.S. leadership remained relatively steady from 2005 to 2008. In 2009, a bare median majority approves of the job performance of U.S. leadership (51{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) — a first since Gallup began asking the question worldwide in 2005.

Significant improvements in sentiment toward U.S. leadership are evident in all four major global regions, with the largest year-over-year increase in approval measured in Europe. Median approval of U.S. leadership increased by 28 percentage points between 2008 and 2009 in this region. A median of 47{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} approves and a median of 20{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} disapproves — the first time disapproval has dropped below 50{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in Europe since Gallup first asked the question.

Historically, approval of U.S. leadership has been highest in Africa. However, there is great variability in the region on this issue with approval highest in sub-Saharan Africa and tending to be lower in North African countries. This trend continues in 2009, with a median approval of 83{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}, which is well above the median approval in other regions. Approval of U.S. leadership ranges from ratings that are higher than 90{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in Ivory Coast (94{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), Kenya (93{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), and Uganda (91{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) to lows of 38{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in Morocco and 37{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in Egypt and Tunisia.

A regional median of 53{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in the Americas approves of the job performance of U.S. leadership and a median of 18{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} disapproves. Approval of U.S. leadership varies from a low of 40{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in Bolivia and 42{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in Argentina, Ecuador, and Nicaragua to a high of 68{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in El Salvador.

Perceptions of U.S. leadership are more divided in Asia than in any other region. In 2009, a median of more than one-third (38{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}) say they approve, while 29{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} disapproved. Pakistanis express the lowest approval of U.S. leadership, at 9{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}, followed by 14{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} approval in Iraq, 15{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in Syria, and 17{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} in Vietnam. Approval was highest in Singapore (68{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), Japan (66{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), Cambodia (64{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), Turkmenistan (61{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}), and Israel (61{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b}). …

Results are based on telephone and face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted in 121 countries throughout 2005-2006, 95 countries throughout 2007, 113 countries throughout 2008, and 102 countries throughout 2009. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95{2a6033f7eac5eade65ac45c5dc15245d782bf621d43785c1e0a25870ae642a3b} confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error ranged from a low of ±2.2 percentage points in Russia to a high of ±5.8 percentage points in Ghana in 2005-2006; a low of ±3.0 percentage points in Belarus, Japan, and Malaysia to a high of ±5.4 percentage points in Ghana in 2007; a low of ±2.5 percentage points in Russia to a high of ±5.8 percentage points in Zambia in 2008; a low of ±2.8 percentage points in Russia to a high of ±5.7 percentage points in Slovenia in 2009. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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